The recognition of two separatist-held areas in Eastern Ukraine-Donetsk and Luhansk by Russian President Vladimir Putin turned out to be the full-scale invasion in Ukraine. While the West was playing up the schedule of war since the time Russia deployed its troop on the territory of its principal strategic adversary “Belarus”, during the time United States sent well-nigh 3000 soldiers to Poland and Romania to defend NATO members of Eastern Europe from the potential threat from the Ukraine crisis at that juncture. Amidst the hullabaloo, Russia put forward the roster of demands including the ban on the accession of Ukraine to NATO and the limitation to the grouping of troops in Eastern Europe. In return, the United States repudiated such stipulations and instead stood by its prolonged position of making Ukraine a member of NATO if the country wishes to. On February 24, 2022, Putin announced the “Special Military Operation” which is the consequence of a chain of events from the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 to the present crisis. It seems the war fanned by ego has paved the way for a new geopolitical order whilst the experts now have its eye on China, as it might venture to own Taiwan by following the trajectory of Russia.
Soviet fallout
The thirty-one years of tapestry led to the disintegration of 15 Soviet Republics including Ukraine declaring its independence on August 24, 1991. It all started in 1986 when Mikhail Gorbachev unequivocally decided to withdraw the Soviet troops deployed in Afghanistan to reduce the foreign intervention, economic cost, and casualties. About 15,000 Russian troops died in Afghanistan (US Intelligence Sources) whilst combating Mujahedeen backed by the US, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan for 8 years. The economic conditions of the Soviet Union were already in desperate straits because of its policy of excessive centralization and its resources and productivity to follow the development model from the West started getting exhausted. Within a month, Soviet-backed republics of contemporary Eastern Europe nations started backlashing the government, and eventually, Lithuania became the first Baltic nation in 1990 to separate itself from the USSR.
The economic devitalization in Russia was palpable in the sense that the fall in oil prices and foreign trades resulted in a big drop in state revenue with the concomitant of a huge deficit on the USSR. Gorbachev brought in new reforms like decentralization as a fail-safe for all the 15 republics to remain intact within the USSR. The Fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 was an event changing the future of the USSR for eternity in respect to the territorial bifurcation of the Soviet Union. The situation facilitated East Berlin and West Berlin to unite and thus clearing the way for the reunification of Germany in 1999.
The protest being commenced from Poland easily enabled Eastern Bloc to dovetail their grievances and retaliations. The coup in 1991 by a communist entrenched group of top-notch military and civilian leaders to remove Gorbachev failed but it debilitated his leadership and position. On December 8, 1991, the head of three governments- Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus signed Belavezha Accords, proclaiming that the USSR no longer existed and, in a few weeks, Gorbachev announced his resignation.
European Security Construction: NATO
NATO’s present relevance to its core ideology and the objective with which it laid its foundation has completely changed. It was created in 1949 to act as a defensive wall against the Soviet Union at the juncture when it occupied the larger part of Eastern Europe. Initially, all the member states of NATO including the United States, Canada, Belgium, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, and the United Kingdom were papering over the ideology to counter the Soviet Union’s further advancement to Western Europe. The United States acted as a catalyst in the Cold War Era to unite nations from Western Europe irrespective of the differences in geography and history to combat the aggression from the USSR. It was categorically stated by NATO that the attack on one member state would be considered as an onslaught on all the member states of NATO and thus they coined the term “collective defence” to protect their sovereignty.
After the disintegration of the USSR in 1991, the relevance of NATO was called into question but instead, NATO with the strong support of the United States expanded its domain to cyberspace, outer space, and the regions in Eastern Europe and Afghanistan.
Putin has concerns with the expansion of NATO towards Eastern Europe as a threat posing to its territorial integrity. Taking a cursory glance from the perspective of Russia it felt like the encompassment from all the sides. In retaliation, Russia cautioned the Alliance to not admit the states bordering its territory keeping in mind the balance of power. In 2008, Russia recognized the independence of two separatist regions in Georgia – Abkhazia and South Ossetia after sending its peacekeeping forces in both regions of conflict. Georgia which is the erstwhile Soviet Republic made several attempts to join NATO and has also served in Kosovo along with the NATO troops for a peacekeeping mission. Russia opposed the accession of Georgia to NATO would bring the epoch of the Cold War back and will further provoke Russia to take necessary steps to insulate its boundaries. Thus, Russia annexed Georgia when it sent its troops to South Ossetia and after the war, both the breakaway areas of Georgia were identified as autonomous Oblasts having the backing of Russia to date.
According to doyens, in 2008 US chose not to walk a tightrope by forcing NATO to acknowledge the accession of Ukraine into a politico-military group and thereafter propelling Kyiv in its attempt to oust Viktor Yanukovych. The protest was well known by Euromaidan protests where Ukrainians led a peaceful campaign against Yanukovych for not signing the agreement to have closer ties with the European Union and instead of furthering its entente with Russia. Hence, the removal of Viktor Yanukovych in 2014 and Ukraine’s effort to vouch for the membership of NATO goaded Russia to annex the Crimean Peninsula in Ukraine.
Subsequently, the annexation steered the way for the separatist tendencies in Eastern Ukraine (Donbas) to emerge at their peak and vehemently protest for the recognition of independence from Ukraine. Seeking to end the conflict in the Donbas region, two rounds of the Minsk Agreement were put on the table to solve the crisis for both the statelets. Since the first agreement was not met with concrete results, both the European countries-France and Germany arranged the process of negotiations for Russia and Ukraine through the second round of the Minsk Agreement to reinstate the Minsk-I Agreement. It resulted in providing special status to both the areas within Ukraine and the agreement brought forth the control of the state border by Ukraine but after the settlement of local elections within the two regions. Russia saw it as an opportunity for both the rebel areas to have autonomy over their decision to choose their leader which in turn will incapacitate the Government in Kyiv.
The Present State of Crisis Between Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Russia stationed more than 100,000 troops in Belarus which is its potential ally and borders with Ukraine. In November 2021, the US warned the West of Russia’s aspiration of invading Ukraine. The deployment of troops by Russia in Belarus, while a build-up in Crimea and the Black Sea was named as Potemkin, set up to invade Ukraine.
Though Russia incessantly denied all the possibilities of the annexation in Ukraine but the United States emphatically stated the events as a prelude to war in Ukraine. It was quite conspicuous for the United States to not send their troops directly to Ukraine as they exhibit responsibility towards NATO members though Biden assured Russia of severe economic sanctions that would cripple the economy of Russia for the years to come.
Putin presented the security pact listing demands including a ban on membership of Ukraine and former Soviet Union Republics to NATO and further retraction of troops and weapons from Central and Eastern Europe as it poses a threat to Russian security. In retaliation, The White House asserted that all the countries including Ukraine have the right to be part of NATO and thus arrive at their own decisions without the interference of any other State.
A series of negotiations and diplomatic talks were held to de-escalate the crisis but there was no substantive result of any discussions. French President Emmanuel Macron came forward to hold a meeting with Putin in Moscow to pacify the situation but it proved futile. Russia’s NATO quandary was the main concern for Putin and on the other hand, NATO’s penchant for advancing towards Eastern Europe was visible. We cannot forget that diplomacy is a two-way process and no extreme solutions can be taken into account to resolve the problem, especially where the crisis involves the nation’s hankering for power within an established world order. The conflict seems to be less about the negotiations, but rather reviving the ideologies of the Cold War Era. Ukraine appears to be a pawn in the game of power politics between Russia and the United States.
On 21 February 2022, the State Duma of Russia passed an official decree by the President recognizing the independence of two breakaway regions-Donetsk and Luhansk in Eastern Ukraine. Putin also sent what he describes as “Peacekeeping Troops” in both the regions to defend themselves against any potential attack from the West and Ukraine. Russia is currently facing several sanctions after recognizing the independence of two separatist regions. Sanctions are imposed by Western Nations, European Union, Japan, Taiwan, United States, United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, Germany, and Taiwan.
Some of the crucial sanctions which are constructed to hurt the economy of Russia include restricting the assets of Russia’s Central Bank and capping its capacity to access $630 billion in international dollar stockpile. President Biden announced its first-ever transactions of cutting Russia off from Pounds and Dollars and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz deferred the process to certify Nord Stream 2 pipeline which was earlier been in controversy as the pipeline passes through Ukraine. United Kingdom declared sanctions against Russian oligarchs and banks while the countries came to a consensus to remove several Russian banks from the SWIFT messaging system which succors the nations to have a safe and easy passage to transfer the money across the borders and is a point of network for monetary transfers between the banks worldwide. The European Union has put a no-fly zone on Russian planes and they have banned exports on certain items like computers, aircraft, telecoms, etc. Most of the sanctions from the States consist of the ban on exports, travel, banks, assets of political leaders in Russia. Meanwhile, nations like India, Pakistan, and China have not engaged themselves in imposing any sanctions on Russia.
The sanctions were unlikely to stop Putin and he publicly announced the “Special Military Operation” on 24th February 2022. Putin expressed that his objective was to protect the Russian-speaking community who are constantly facing the brunt of the regime in Kyiv. His plausible explanation for full-scale invasion in Ukraine was to “demilitarize” and “denazify” Ukraine so that it never effectuates a threat to Russia in the future. The denial of Statehood of Ukraine from Putin in his speech was visible when he pointed out that the history of Ukraine is one part of Russia per se and Ukraine is not separate from Russia.
The bloodbath is eventually unfolding and it is pivotal to take cognizance of the death toll considering both sides. According to the reports by Ukrainian emergency services, more than 2000 Ukrainian civilians have died since the Russian invasion came into picture in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy proclaimed that around 9000 Russian troops died but in contradiction, the Russian Defence Ministry confirmed the demise of 498 Russian troops. Meanwhile, the data of actual death toll couldn’t be verified but it is assessed that almost 10,000 people have died in totality from both sides. The UN Refugee Agency has estimated that around 4 million Ukrainian refugees may further need help and safe sanctuaries from the bordering countries and international community.
In between the acrimony created between Russia and Ukraine, there is a glimmer of hope on the otherwise dark horizon as the Ukrainian delegation met the Russian Delegation in Belarus for the peace talks. The negotiation was brokered by Belarus at the request of the Ukrainian President and the parties have reached an agreement to provide safe passages for evacuation to non-combatants. The humanitarian supplies will also be made available at such uncertain times but still, there is an impasse created concerning the ceasefire from both sides. Lastly, the cease-fires will be placed in the regions where humanitarian corridors are established.
At this juncture, it is difficult to appraise the catastrophe that continues to unfold along with the Russia-Ukraine crisis, but it will unquestionably disturb the current world order. Consequently, Putin has compared the sanctions imposed on Russia as the means to wage the war. Hence, he warned that further sanctions from the West will have appalling consequences for the rest of the world and Europe. France has called out Germany and other European countries to take their verdict without the backing of any other State which indirectly points out towards the United States. There is also a looming doubt on the energy crisis in Europe as around 45% of natural gas is imported to the EU from Russia. Even if the United States finds other stakeholders to deliver the natural gas, then how much feasible it is for other nations to arrange the logistics and infrastructure to send the natural gas to Ukraine on time? and could the US be able to gather all the required sources for the natural gas which could counterbalance Russia’s supply of natural gas to Europe?
India has chosen to remain oblique in blaming Russia for the invasion and has also opted to abstain from voting against Russia in the Human Rights Council, UNGA, UNSC, and IAEA. Though, India has expressed the “legitimate security concerns” for all the nations around the globe, and India’s Prime Minister has called out Putin in a telephonic conversation with him to defuse the escalation and advance the ceasefire. India launched “Operation Ganga” for the evacuation of Indians from Ukraine and over 20,000 students have been taken out from Ukraine under the mission. There have been several incidents of racial discrimination confirmed by Indian and African students from Ukrainian police officers at the border but the Ukrainian officials have dismissed all the allegations.
Ukraine is in a bid to join the European Union and has submitted its application for the process but it could take years for them to become part of the European Union because of its tedious process to fulfil the required conditions before becoming a member of the European Union.
Conclusion
There are certainly many implications of the current upheavals in regards to crisis staging itself by some important characters. The sanctions are unlikely to have a significant effect on stopping the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The toll of the crisis on both Russia and Ukraine has been important, with the experts estimating that it would motivate other countries like China to take a similar step with respect to its intent of occupying Taiwan. The only possible solution is Ukraine’s tête-à-tête with Russia as the third round of peace talks is in pipeline for the outcome observing a cease-fire from the respective sides. The other way is for Ukraine to meet Russia halfway as other than the logistic propelling from the West, there is no chance of fetching military support at this critical juncture. Both Russia and Ukraine need to act mindfully to end the bellicose to not let humankind suffer.
References
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