The year 2023 was recorded as the hottest in the past 173 years. To assess the impact, the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Global Risks Report 2024 identified climate change as the world’s greatest concern for the next decade. Rising global temperatures have been linked to glacial melting, which is a growing climate vulnerability. Global warming accelerates this melting, leading to the formation and expansion of glacial lakes, thereby increasing the risk of catastrophic flooding. Floods caused by the sudden release of water from glacial lakes are known as glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). These occur when glacial lakes, formed by the accumulation of meltwater from retreating glaciers, breach their natural dams, unleashing vast amounts of water in destructive torrents.
The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) defines GLOFs as “the sudden release of water from a lake fed by glacier melt that has formed at the side, in front, within, beneath, or on the surface of a glacier.” Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) pose a significant risk, with the potential to cause a high number of fatalities. According to the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Global Risks Report 2024, the four most serious risks over the next decade are natural resource shortages, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, extreme weather events, and major changes to Earth’s systems. Pollution is also identified as one of the top 10 most serious hazards. While environmental concerns dominate the long-term outlook, misinformation and disinformation are regarded as the primary short-term risks within the next two years.
Global Overview
According to a 2023 Nature Communications study, 90 million people live in 1,089 basins containing glacial lakes across 30 countries. Of these, 15 million people (16.6%) reside within 50 kilometres of a glacial lake. The High Mountain Asia (HMA) region is home to 9.3 million people, accounting for 62% of the global population exposed to glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) risks. Furthermore, half of the globally exposed population resides in four densely populated countries: China, India, Pakistan, and Peru. While 66% (198,000 people) of those at risk live in HMA, only 2% (300,000) of the world’s population vulnerable to GLOFs resides within five kilometers of one or more glacial lakes.
Distribution of GLOF Exposure in HMA
The percentage of the global population exposed to GLOF risks varies significantly across nations. In India, approximately 3 million people are exposed, while 2 million are at risk in Pakistan—together making up one-third of the global total. The High Mountain Asia (HMA) region holds the highest normalized exposure score (1.000). Among individual countries, India and Pakistan lead with scores of 1.000 and 0.701, respectively. Notably, over 76% of GLOF exposure in the HMA region is concentrated in four countries: India (32%), Pakistan (23%), China (12%), and Nepal (9%).
The Thyanbo glacial lake was the source of the devastating glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) that struck Nepal’s Khumbu region in August 2024. In the Himalayas, where glacial melt and the creation of unstable glacial lakes are becoming more frequent, this episode highlights the growing hazard of climate change-related calamities. The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), situated in Nepal, discovered that these lakes’ sizes are continuously changing in 2017 after examining satellite imagery from the European Space Agency’s Copernicus Earth Observation program. According to a recent study, the number and size of glacial lakes have increased significantly worldwide since 1990, along with the downstream population.
Population exposed to GLOF (% national total)
South Asia, home to some of the most densely inhabited regions in the world is especially susceptible to the cascading effects of glacial lake overflows since it depends on Himalayan water supplies for drinking water, hydropower, and agriculture. GLOF-induced relocation, destroyed infrastructure, and interrupted water supply could worsen already-existing socioeconomic disparities and increase tensions in the area. In an area that is already water-stressed, a sudden surge from a GLOF could overwhelm downstream infrastructure, interfere with agriculture, and intensify water management disputes.
Three million Indians live in areas where a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) can potentially occur at any time. Together with two million Pakistanis, they make up one-third of the global population at risk. GLOFs present serious problems for the infrastructure, populations, and ecosystems in the area.
Indian Context
The IPCC’s 6th Assessment Report highlights the unprecedented rate of Himalayan glacier retreat which escalates climate-induced vulnerability and hazards. The National Disaster Management Authority claims that numerous new glacial lakes have been formed in the Hindu Kush Himalayas as a result of climate change-induced glacier retreat, which has resulted in GLOFs. The State of India’s Environment 2022: In Figures report from the Delhi-based Centre for Science and Environment and Down to Earth revealed that the water spread area in India, China, and Nepal has increased by 40%, posing an unprecedented threat to seven Indian states and Union Territories. Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Assam, and Arunachal Pradesh are the six Himalayan states/UTs that make up this group. According to a research study, the area of 31 glacier lakes and water bodies grew by 20% in October 2021. The largest increase in water spread area, 388%, occurred in Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh between 2009 and 2020.
In February 2021, flash floods occurred in Uttarakhand’s Rishi Ganga valley due to a glacier breach. In a similar vein, a GLOF also caused the 2023 floods in Sikkim. It happened when North Sikkim’s South Lhonak glacier lake broke, causing a huge water spill downstream. Sikkim was devastated by the flood, especially in the Teesta River basin. In a similar vein, areas like Kashmir are vulnerable to GLOF.
GLOF and Kashmir
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has highlighted the Himalayas as one of the most affected regions by global warming. In this context, Kashmir has increasingly faced the threat from glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in recent years. According to the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), the Himalayas have warmed at an average rate higher than the global mean, intensifying glacier retreat and lake formation.
Glacial lakes of Kashmir, such as those in the Machoi and Kolahoi glaciers, are especially at risk. Because unstable moraines frequently block these lakes, they are prone to collapsing. Moraine dam failure can be caused by seismic activity, which is frequent in the Himalayan zone. Rapid outbursts have the potential to cause devastating flooding downstream, impacting vital infrastructure and heavily inhabited areas. According to recent studies, Kashmir’s glacial lakes have increased in size and number as a result of the glaciers’ quick retreat. Unstable glacial lakes are forming in strategic locations including the Ladakh, Pir Panjal, and Zanskar mountains. The risk is increased by the region’s delicate geology.
Global warming is the main cause of GLOF dangers. Moreover, the Kashmir region is prone to earthquakes, which can cause glacial lake dams to collapse. In addition, the Himalayas’ small valleys and steep slopes increase the possibility of catastrophic floods. Additionally, human populations are particularly vulnerable to GLOF hazards due to infrastructure projects like highways, dams, and towns close to glacial lakes.
Realizing the gravity of the imminent threat of GLOFs the government of Jammu and Kashmir has stepped up efforts to keep a check on and reduce the risks posed by Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) by improving monitoring and mitigation techniques throughout the region. This included conducting field expeditions. In order to gather vital information and evaluate the dangers posed by potentially dangerous glacial lakes (PDGLs) in Jammu & Kashmir, field trips were essential. In June 2024, the University of Kashmir’s Department of Geography & Disaster Management went on a field trip to two glacier lakes. In addition, Bram Sar Lake in the Kulgam district was thoroughly examined by the Geological Survey of India (GSI). Three important glacial lakes in the Kishtwar district—Mundiksar, Hangu, and another lake in the Kishtwar region—were thoroughly studied.
The GLOF mitigation plan will be put into action in two stages. According to the evaluations supplied by the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), NRSC, CWC, and others, the first part of the expedition, known as “expedition and data collection,” will concentrate on identifying and researching glacial lakes that present a high risk of GLOFs. Phase II will concentrate on creating and putting into action targeted mitigation strategies. In addition, the government of Jammu and Kashmir established a Focused Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Monitoring Committee (FGMC) in April 2024 to focus on mitigating measures to address the risks associated with glacial lake overflows. Among the effects of GLOFs in Kashmir include the loss of human life and settlements, agricultural losses, infrastructure damage, and ecological disturbances.
Way Forward
To address the GLOF threat, a multi-pronged approach should be put in place. Following policy inputs and strategies should be taken into account for addressing the problems associated with GLOF.
Monitoring and Early Warning Systems: It is essential to set up real-time glacial lake monitoring systems. High-risk lakes can be identified with the use of remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) technologies.
Community Awareness and Disaster Preparedness: It is possible to save lives by teaching local communities about GLOF risks and response strategies. To make sure they have access to evacuation plans and resources, regular drills and training sessions are essential.
Infrastructure Resilience: The impact of GLOFs can be lessened by moving communities that are at risk and designing infrastructure that is resistant to flooding.
Policy and Regional Cooperation: Transboundary water management requires cooperation between governments and stakeholders, particularly when the rivers in Kashmir drain into nearby areas.
Climate Action: The primary cause of glacier retreat will be addressed by lowering greenhouse gas emissions and putting sustainable practices into place worldwide.
Sustainable Development: Making certain that climate resilience is considered when designing infrastructure projects in high-risk locations.
Conclusion
The threat of glacial lake outburst floods in Kashmir is a stark reminder of the interconnected challenges posed by climate change in South Asia. Addressing this issue requires urgent action at local, national, and regional levels. By investing in scientific research, enhancing community resilience, and fostering international cooperation, the region can better prepare for and mitigate the impacts of this growing threat. Failure to act could have catastrophic consequences, not just for Kashmir but for the entire South Asian region. As the climate crisis intensifies, safeguarding Kashmir’s future depends on proactive strategies to manage and reduce the risks posed by glacial lake overflows.
References:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-36033-x
https://www.downtoearth.org.in/climate-change/himalayan-plunder-3-million-indians-live-in-areas-that-can-be-swept-by-glacial-lake-floods-says-study-87593
https://www.downtoearth.org.in/climate-change/sonam-wangchuk-is-right-all-is-not-well-with-ladakh-s-glaciers-87278
https://wwf.panda.org/wwf_news/?10497966/WWF-statement-on-WEF-Global-Risk-Report-2024
https://www.downtoearth.org.in/climate-change/no-end-to-climate-changes-wrath-for-himalayas-as-nepal-reports-yet-another-glacial-lake-outburst
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/expeditions-to-study-high-risk-glacial-lakes-in-himalayas-begin-101724351197871.html
https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/energy-and-environment/top-disaster-management-body-identifies-189-glacier-lakes-for-monitoring/article68554937.ece
https://www.thestatesman.com/india/glacial-lake-outburst-flood-warning-system-being-established-in-jk-1503379284.html
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