Something strange has recently occurred in the Kashmir Valley – the prolonged absence of snowfall. The dry spell was finally broken by recent snowfall in February. Even during the 40-day period known as “Chilai Kalan,” Kashmir did not receive any snow. “Chilai Kalan” refers to the harshest winter period in the Kashmir region, a traditional name given to the 40-day winter cold spell that typically starts on December 21 and concludes on January 31 each year. During Chilai Kalan, temperatures in Kashmir often drop significantly, and the region experiences heavy snowfall. This is followed by a 20-day-long ‘Chillai-Khurd’ (small cold) and a 10-day-long ‘Chillai-Bachha’ (baby cold) period, leading into spring.
This year, the prolonged absence of snow, which typically blankets the tall mountains in pure white, has set off alarms in Kashmir. The lack of snow has effects that extend far beyond our imagination. Such incidents have not occurred in a very long time, prompting people to seek answers from experts. The absence of snowfall in Kashmir is undoubtedly going to have significant consequences for all sectors. From agriculture to tourism, everything will be affected. Moreover, the valley’s economy heavily relies on tourism, which, in turn, depends on the natural beauty of the valley.
Is the absence of snowfall this year unusual?
It is evident that the amount of snowfall Kashmir used to receive has significantly decreased over the last few decades. Shivangi Vashista, an Environmental Economist at the Indian Institute of Corporate Affairs, says, “According to research, in recent years, there has been a notable 43% decrease in the mean frequency of strong and extreme Western disturbances, which undoubtedly cause rainfall or snowfall. In fact, Jammu & Kashmir has experienced comparatively dry winters with very little snowfall in several years over the past ten years, including 2022, 2018, and 2015.” Vashista emphasizes the role of global warming and climate change, altering precipitation patterns in the Kashmir Valley. “The lack of snowfall in a specific region, such as the Kashmir Valley, can be influenced by various climate change indicators and data points,” she continues.
Many other published studies indicate a similar pattern. Simultaneously, experts also attribute the reduced snowfall in the Western Himalayas, including the Kashmir Valley, to the El Niño effect. El Niño is a weather event where the sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean periodically rise. This heat alters the normal flow patterns of air and water in the oceans and atmosphere, causing significant changes in the climate worldwide. El Niño events don’t occur very often—every two to seven years, on average—and can last for several months. When the Pacific Ocean warms up, it alters weather trends, affecting variables such as temperature, rainfall, and the strength of storms. El Niño can have effects globally, leading to droughts in some places and increased rain and floods in others. La Niña is the opposite of El Niño and is part of the broader El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. La Niña causes the sea surface temperatures to drop in the same area. Meteorologists and climate experts closely monitor El Niño events because of their significant impact on weather worldwide.
The head of India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) Srinagar office, Mukhtar Ahmad, told Indian Express in an interview that “El Nino would make things worse this winter. El Niño has been stable for three months now, and it will likely stay that way for the next few months as well. This changes the way the air moves around the world and may also be a reason for the lack of rain in the area, though El Nino is not the only cause”. “It hasn’t snowed much in the past few years, even when El Nino hasn’t been around”, he continues
The role of climate change
Kashmir’s lack of snow isn’t just a peculiar weather event; it’s a complex problem linked to signs of climate change. Changing weather patterns are caused by factors such as rising temperatures, alterations in air flow, changing ocean conditions, and trends in snowfall. “Crucial indicators, such as rising temperatures, are associated with reduced snowfall,” says Vashista.
According to a study, by the end of the century, the area, including Ladakh, could reach “catastrophic levels” of heat; the temperature could rise by 3.98 to 6.93C. A lot of other experts in the field agree that climate change is to blame for Kashmir not having had any snow for so long.
In an article published on BBC India, Shakil Ahmad Romshoo, a researcher from the University of Kashmir says “Our per capita greenhouse gas emissions are very less compared to other states. People in Kashmir have a very modest lifestyle. We are the victims of global climate change.” Thus, the absence of snowfall in Kashmir is part of a larger problem that we need to address.
The effect on glaciers
The dry spells can significantly impact the glaciers of the Kashmir Valley. The snow and ice originating from these beautiful glaciers sustain the local economy of the valley, playing a vital role in agriculture, horticulture, tourism, and more. The absence of snowfall would mean the inability of glaciers to rejuvenate. Each year, these glaciers rely on the snowfall during winter for rejuvenation.
“Glaciers are not only critical for the Kashmir Valley but also for the entire northern region of India,” emphasizes Vashista. Glaciers serve as natural reserves that store water as snow in winter and gradually release it during spring and summer, supporting farmers in Kashmir. The entire summer crops depend on water from the glaciers. Imagine having no water for the paddy fields during summer. The absence of water in summer would impact everything from drinking water supply to irrigation. This would directly threaten the agriculture and food security of the Kashmir Valley. Additionally, glaciers are vital for hydropower, a key source of clean, green energy in the area. The absence of glaciers, and thus water supply during summers, could lead to a disaster in the Kashmir Valley.
The impact on livelihoods and tourism
People living in Kashmir are grappling with unexpected effects in many areas of their lives. Muneer Ahmad, a concerned Kashmiri from Pampore working in the tourism industry, talked about how this could affect business and tourism. “A lot of bookings were made in December, which later got cancelled due to the absence of snow,” laments Muneer. “Kashmir is known for its snowfall, attracting many tourists. If Gulmarg doesn’t receive its normal amount of snow, we will not only face issues in tourism but also in many other sectors,” he said.
“This winter was unlike any other. It had ruined the much-anticipated winter games and made the lives of people dependent on the tourism industry difficult,” continues Muneer. When weather patterns change and there is less snow, the essence of winter diminishes. Winter sports and events that people look forward to are usually canceled when it doesn’t snow on time. Activities like skiing, snowboarding, and other winter sports lose their charm when there isn’t enough snow. This is what happened this year, as many winter sports activities were canceled, disappointing both tourists and businesses.
Concerned farmers
Having said that, the majority of agricultural activities are dependent on snowfall. The absence of snowfall is detrimental to agriculture in two ways. First, new saplings are under stress when the soil lacks significant moisture during those months, hindering their growth and reproduction. Secondly, more ground and surface water sources are being used because of insufficient water, placing additional stress on the already limited water supplies in the area.
Dr. Rashid emphasizes the importance of snowfall for agricultural activities in the same article by stating, “The dry winters would mean a higher mass loss of glaciers in this hydrological year if the weather conditions do not improve, and it might impact hydropower generation, irrigation, agriculture, and other dependent sectors.”
The water that Kashmir receives during the summers mainly comes from rivers and tributaries fed by glaciers. This year, Kashmir witnessed a significant decrease in the water levels of the Jhelum, causing concern among farmers. The apple industry heavily relies on precipitation in the form of snow. The same holds true for saffron, as its corms require snow during winter to flourish.
This is because when there isn’t much snow, the normal water cycle is disturbed. As snow melts over time, it helps rivers and streams maintain their steady flow. Ensuring that farming always has clean water is crucial. Farmers cannot plant their crops or take good care of them when they don’t know how much water will be available due to this natural phenomenon. The unexpected weather has also disrupted the normal life cycles of many plant species. This year, Kashmir witnessed the flowering of many angiosperms in January, which would normally occur post-February. This both surprised and saddened the local community, indicating the seriousness of the issue.
What needs to be done?
It is clear that strong measures need to be taken to combat such climatic changes in the Kashmir Valley and elsewhere. First of all, we need to conserve our natural resources, including forests, glaciers, and meadows, as they are all vital for maintaining the ecosystem and climate. Development should not come at the cost of nature. Simultaneously, we need to educate our population about the vitality of nature and its processes, such as snowfall.
Vatishta also stressed how important it is to take a broad and multifaceted approach to deal with the changing trends of climate. She summed up her ideas by saying, “The current situation in the Kashmir Valley needs a multi-pronged strategy that includes climate-resilient agriculture, decarbonization, afforestation, sustainable tourism, and good water resource management.” Thus, at both the local and international levels, people must work together to put these measures into action and ensure that the area can adapt to changing climate conditions. We must remember that a change in one part of the world will affect another part because the whole earth is interconnected. All governments need to take proper steps at their levels to reduce greenhouse emissions. It is the responsibility of global leaders to ensure that proper laws are framed to combat global change.
Conclusion
The weather events that Kashmir faced this year are not going to be the last. This was just a warning pointing towards a bigger issue of global warming and climate change. Oftentimes, the countries responsible for climate change are not the first to face the consequences. In places like Kashmir, people are living modest lives compared to high-tech cities around the world.
However, that does not save a place like Kashmir from getting impacted. The higher fluctuations in temperatures in Kashmir can have far-reaching consequences for people living in the Kashmir Valley. So, it’s never too late to start taking small steps to conserve nature. At the same time, we must be prepared for such incidents and focus on integrating technology in the wake of climate change.
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