Earth scientists have cautioned against the possibility of an earthquake on a 100 kms stretch from Jammu – Pathankot and underneath to Kishtwar. “The impact of the possible earthquake cannot be changed although the scientists were not sure when it would happen. Asking the people not to panic but to construct resilience structures as per the prescribed codes,” the experts say.
“We cannot tell when such an earthquake will happen, but we can start to prepare for it. The vulnerability of cities, people, and property to such earthquakes can be reduced and requires the collaboration and participation of scientists, administrators, policymakers, and the public,” they say.
The Kashmir Valley lies in Seismic Zone V, which relates to a Very High-Risk Area, as far as the intensity and magnitude of earthquakes are considered. Though the origin may vary, from Afghanistan to Kashmir Himalayan region, the damage it brings forth involves all areas surrounding the epicenter (the point of origin of an earthquake).
Kashmir is prone to earthquakes because the fault line – an area along two plate boundaries that continuously move against each other – it harbors is agitated. Being the region along which this line passes makes the Valley more vulnerable to the great intensity and high magnitude earthquakes, although incidents of smaller types also occur intermittently.
Japan is prone to different types of earthquakes, given its proximity to the Ring of Fire and the fact that it houses an active volcano, Fujiyama. The San Andreas Fault in California, USA, is another very high-risk zone because of tectonic plates (plates on which the Earth’s crust rests) continually sliding over each other. Similarly, Kashmir rests between the smaller Indian plate and the larger Eurasian plate that is also persistently in motion. It was because of the collision of these plates that the Himalayas were formed. And now with each movement, these great mountain ranges are increasing in height, although at the same time, devastation ensues in the low-lying areas, such as our valleys.
History of earthquakes in the Valley
Though very less information is available about the number and type of earthquakes that shook the Valley before the 1800s, the development of technology and rigorous research allowed us to efficiently know about episodes that happened after. If Persian records are to be believed, the earthquake of 1555 was responsible for a complete geographic exchange of two villages along the river Veshaw. When the ground shook, the villages of Hussainabad and Hassanabad, located along the banks of this river, interchanged their places. The most disastrous event in the 19th century took place in 1885. With its epicenter at Baramulla, this natural calamity is believed to wipe out about 67% of the total population of the region. About 3600 deaths were reported. The neighboring district of Srinagar was also affected.
Although since then numerous occurrences of earthquakes were experienced, both of high and low magnitude, in terms of lives lost and damage caused, the earthquake that shook the Valley in October 2005 afflicted people the most. More than 76,000 lives were lost, from Muzzafarabad in PoK to the erstwhile state of J&K. The earthquake recorded 7.6 on the Richter scale. Millions were left homeless, structures were leveled to the ground, and the region was completely cut-off from the world. Hopelessness and misery were dispensed to the whole region in a matter of seconds. Even now, frequent earthquakes of low intensity are continually striking the region. And people are unaware of what these might lead to. Thus, disaster preparedness is the need of the hour.
Can we predict earthquakes?
There are no proper means to predict earthquakes at present even though it is possible to know the magnitude and intensity with which the earthquake can strike a region with stressed fault lines. Some scientists have developed seismographs that determine the oncoming earthquake a minute to 30 seconds before impact. However, this time interval is insignificant for alerting the population that is to be potentially affected. This technique can, on the other hand, be utilized for those industries or plants which harbor toxic or nuclear raw material. These few seconds can be utilized for disengaging machinery to render the plant inactive. Nevertheless, an earthquake of greater magnitude can, at any rate, cause devastation to the entire complex. Although, it is possible to know the type of earthquake and associated damage depending on the type of boundary, a region’s proximity to water bodies, the presence of nuclear plants nearby, and integrity as well as elevation of structures constructed in a region.
Recommendations
There is a need for a paradigm shift to address disaster management from a relief centric to a multidimensional, preparedness-oriented approach. Most disaster management plans focus on the post-disaster period of rescue, rehabilitation, and reconstruction (RRR). As the probability of earthquake occurrences in Kashmir valley is very high, the authorities need to revise guidelines and strategies to include the prevention of colossal damage at the onset of disaster (mitigation) rather than over-emphasizing rehabilitation of the affected after it strikes.
For the effectiveness of disaster preparedness, mitigation, recovery, and response, the need of the hour is to implement the following measures on a priority basis:
- Safety audit of buildings, in terms of, resilience to the impending hazards and requirement of retrofitting of critical infrastructure.
- Strictly adhere to existing and state-of-the-art building codes, and the constitution of teams for review and enforcement of these codes for government, semi-government, corporation, and private residential buildings completed or under construction in urban and rural areas. Compilation of details of existing contingency plans to deal with disaster and emergency situations.
- Capacity building of stakeholders, service providers, and first and second-line incident respondents with backup mechanisms under SDMA and NDMA.
- Firming up details of search and rescue equipment required at the village, tehsil, district, and state level for disaster mitigation measures.
- Firming up district disaster mitigation management plans for critical departments and constructing the multi-layered incident response teams backed up by emergency response centers for each district and department.
- Introduction of disaster management as a subject at school, college, and university levels, and conducting mass awareness programs at block, district, and state levels.
- Alignment of the building codes in accordance with the provisions of the Disaster Management Act, Sendai Framework, and state plan.
- To ensure the effective implementation of the Sendai Framework, monitoring indicators, and infrastructure development schemes of the NDMA at the state and district levels.
- More geological and geotechnical investigations are to be carried out to document the active, near-source seismogenic structure which would help in formulating safer design decisions.
- Mainstreaming the Disaster Risk Reduction in development programs through training activities, coordinating mock exercises, and training concerned officials for capacity building for better preparedness and effective response measures. Hospitals, health centers, fire stations along with the police are to be prepared. Holding safety drills to be adept in any situation.
- Community contingency strategies are prepared by people themselves by identifying their vulnerabilities and preparing action plans to equip themselves for future disasters.
- Creation of awareness about Disaster Risk Management by offering awareness and information campaigns at the community level, which in the long run will help in developing disaster-resilient societies.
Although the NDMA act of 2005 lays guidelines for the establishment of Disaster Management Authorities at the national, state, and district levels, no ground evaluation of such authorities is present in the Kashmir region. The State Disaster Management Authority (SDMA) was established in Jammu and Kashmir way back in 2005 and J&K State Disaster Management Policy was ordained in 2011, yet no practical measures have been implemented so far. The SDMA acts as a watchdog for natural catastrophes and monitors rescue efforts rather than concentrating on developing strategies for earthquake disaster mitigation, and preparedness.
Earthquakes are endemic to the Valley, as has been researched and experienced time and again, and only better preparedness for the disasters can ensure our relative safety. An efficient disaster management and mitigation plan can be only developed through the participation of all stakeholders, not just the government. Although natural calamities cannot be prevented completely proper strategies and mitigation measures would substantially decrease the level of hazard and damage. So when disaster strikes, those who have emergency plans and practice them routinely will be in a better position to ride out the event and help their people.
References
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