How and why ‘climate change’ has become a ‘national security’ issue of great significance

“The world you and I live in is increasingly challenged. Population growth, pollution, over-consumption, unsustainable patterns, social conflict, climate change, loss of nature…these are not good stories.” – Jack Dangermond

Globally, we have entered the age wherein the meaning of “security” has been upended. As a result, the States have renewed their understanding of national security in a holistic sense. Food Security, Energy Security, Water Security, and Climate Security are some of the human security concerns that have been recently included in the global security agenda. These concerns formally called Non-Traditional Security (NTS) challenges are non-military and can result in political instability or exacerbate the existing conflict in any nation. The Non-Traditional Security challenges can majorly be bifurcated into 1) Environmental Security 2) Social Security 3) Economic Security.

There is a conspicuous understanding of the food-water-energy nexus and how it emerges as a concern for a nation’s security, but there is very less literature available explaining climate change as a security concern; likely to erupt into armed conflict.

Warning that people and countries most vulnerable to climate change also are most vulnerable to terrorist recruitment and violence, nearly 60 speakers in an open debate on December 19th, 2021 told the Security Council that the negative synergy between the two crises threatens to undermine States and international security itself, as the 15-nation organ considered a draft resolution proposed by Niger and Ireland on the matter.

Climate Change and National Security

Sri Lanka has long been experiencing public unrests, coups, economic quandaries, genocide, and ethnic cleansing of Tamils, and now the Food and Energy crisis has aggravated the current economic crisis and poses a “threat multiplier” to the Country’s national security. The crisis in Sri Lanka reminds us of the Water conflict between the water-scarce co-riparian States; Israel, Syria, and Jordan. The problem started when the aforementioned regions built their water schemes to either transport the water or divert the Jordan and the Yarmouk River. The Jordan River Drainage Basin became a point of water conflict which also contributed to the famous six days of the war, also known as the Israeli-Arab War. The conflict caused prolonged hostility in the region for over seventy years. However, the collective action of Israel and Jordan through their 1994 Peace Treaty, the 2013 Red Sea-Dead Conveyance project, and the NGO Master Plan Report have ensured a beneficial and sustainable resolution to the problem for all parties involved.

Similarly, the Water Conflict between India-Pakistan started at the Indus River Basin in the 1960s and the occasional bouts of diplomatic tensions can still be seen today. However, the two countries signed Indus Water Treaty to create an understanding of the cooperation for sharing the water from all the six rivers in the Indus River Basin. With both climate change impacts and populations on the rise, it has become vital for India and Pakistan to hammer out the treaty; as the water demand is increasing and it is becoming difficult for both the countries to enable a fair distribution of the water resources between people, especially farmers.

The environmental crisis is considered the main reason for the continued migration of people from Bangladesh to India. Scarcity of land and water in the rural areas of Bangladesh, caused by rapid population growth, environmental change, unequal resource distribution and development, widespread landlessness, unemployment, declining wages and income, growing income disparities, and degradation of human habitat are among the crises that lead the migration of people from Bangladesh to India. The affected people, unable to satisfy their needs in an economically less‐developed Bangladesh, are increasingly moving to India where the prospect of life appears to be better. Studies suggest that this flow of population would continue unabated, perhaps at a greater rate, unless remedial measures are taken in the places of origin of the migrants. According to experts, almost 17% of the landmass in Bangladesh, especially the areas near the coastal areas will be submerged under the water by the end of the 21st century. Also, in the Maldives around 500000 people are exposed to vulnerability as 80% of the landmass in the Maldives is well-nigh one meter above sea level. India having a stronghold in South Asia will have to immediately address the flow of “climate refugees” from both Bangladesh and Maldives.

Migration can hamper the resources of a nation absorbing the “environmental refugees”. As the population will rise with the migration, there can be a contestation to acquire resources, mostly from lower strata and such a situation will disrupt the economy and social framework. The social and economic tensions are the primary causes of crime and violence. There are 700 million internal migrants around the globe who have left their habitats because of environmental driven factors like drought, flood, desertification, water insecurity, etc. (UN Human Development Report, 2012)

Climate Change and Armed Conflict

Climate change multiplies the crisis or the conflict. It can divert a country from the military strategies at the time of disasters like floods, melting of the glaciers, extreme temperatures, and cyclones. Such unfavorable climatic events can change the course of military positioning in disaster-prone areas and can also tamper with military establishments and assets. E.g., If country A is in conflict with country B and hypothetically, the former country has better military development, forte, and assets than the latter one. In this scenario, if the military of both nations is deployed in the border area prone to extremely low temperatures, then the country B has to face the brunt of low temperatures and its indirect effect including changing strategical positioning, changing its military establishments, and the nation B’s dearth in its capabilities will always put it in jeopardy. It can also add to conflict if nation A gets to apprehend the unpreparedness of nation B.

A paper published in 2015 has shown that change in temperatures and precipitation patterns increases the chance of conflict. Furthermore, every 1 degree Celsius increase in temperature shoots up the conflict between groups by 11.3%. (Marshall Burke, Solomon M. Hsiang, Edward Miguel, 2015). The paper asserts that climate change multiplies the threat and the crisis per se. Also, the path to simmer down the political and economic instability will contribute to peace concomitant with the efforts of addressing the climate change issue as a foreign policy demarche.

In the light of recent events in the African continent, a powerful connection between climate change and armed conflict is quite evident. The region around the Sahel, has continuous periods of desertification, droughts, precipitation, and soil erosion, leading to poor productivity of agriculture, at a time when the majority of the population is dependent on agriculture for employment. This phenomenon led to a civil war in Sudan that lasted up to the 1980s. Darfur saw the worst famine with an estimated death of 100000, the crisis further stirred a mass migration and the large population of Arab pastoralists migrated to the lands of settled farmers named the “fur tribes”. Thus, sparking ethnic violence among both communities. The government supported the Arab pastoralists turned militias who ignited the situation through bombings on civilian areas including West and south of North Darfur covering Jebel Marra and Kabkabia. They intended to clear the lands inhabited by farmers settled in the region. The armed conflict killed almost 300000 and 2.5 million got dislocated. Last year, 83 people died as the tension heightened across the region.

As we move towards the West in Africa, which is Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, and Niger, the food security issues, malnutrition, and water scarcity is ubiquitous around Lake Chad Basin. Climate change has brought about such issues and has contributed to mass killings, abductions, and the growth of terrorist organizations. President Buhari of Chad was concerned about youth joining terrorist organizations because of the absence of employment and necessities like food and water. Employment in Africa largely hinges on Agriculture and production. The kidnapping of 343 boys in Nigeria was a down spiral event when Africa is already surviving coups, instability, and economic crisis. One thing which cannot be ignored is the recriminations flying back and forth by the kidnappers, stating the killing of their cattle and how different groups disturb them.

CONCLUSION

We know of plenty of agreements and treaties drafted with the intention to protect the environment. All such treaties and agreements were either based on hard law or soft law principles. Stockholm Declaration in 1972 for the environment and development acted as a springboard for the other stakeholders to start seeing a slight connection between the environment and armed conflict in a sense that they addressed the issues of the impact of armed conflicts, war, and violence on the environment. Three such treaties are Stockholm Declaration 1972, The World Charter for Nature 1982, and Rio Declaration 1992.

It took a long time for the scientists to assess the consequences of climate change resulting in armed conflicts and yet there are many states casting uncertainty on the link between climate change and conflict. Last year in February 2021, Boris Johnson, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom stated “climate change as a geopolitical issue” and further asked the member states to not shy away from the subject. It is not wise for the governments and policymakers to outrightly deny the linkage between climate change and armed conflict though there is no direct role of climate change in initiating armed conflicts or violence. There is still elbow room for relevant stakeholders to carry out their integrated research analysis on observing how the conflict and climate change have converged over the last decade. The issue of linking climate change and armed conflict should not be exaggerated and a strong research infrastructure is needed to not have superficial discussions. The key factors that need to be taken into account include identifying the crucial groups, the rewards benefitting the group or individual from the violence and conflict, resources at stake, quantitate data, societal structure, degree of violence and conflict, and resource competition in the region.

The Indian military has begun to recognize the threat posed by environmental change, mostly after 2014’s Cyclone Hudhud, which destroyed the airbase at India’s Eastern Naval Command. The damage cost US$ 300 million to the Indian Navy. The policymakers have comprehended how climate change can manipulate the battlefield and hence, the adversary can attack critical points while taking advantage of environmental disasters due to climate change. Siachen being a vital point for India and Pakistan, is vulnerable to glacier melting which causes the water level in the downstream river to vary suddenly resulting in limiting the Indian army’s range. Understanding the fact that obscureness can leave military camps in peril, the Joint Doctrine of the Indian Armed Forces was drafted in 2017 to acknowledge climate change as a “critical area of security paradigm”. 

The unique approach to national security complies with Kautilya’s Arthashastra wherein he has mentioned the prime importance of food and environmental security and has stated that mountains and rivers can be used as a tool to protect the nation and thus can be utilized in forming operational strategies to both defend and attack.

REFERENCES
1) https://www.downtoearth.org.in/blog/environment/how-climate-change-can-trigger-security-concerns-in-south-asia-51756
2) https://reliefweb.int/report/india/climate-change-national-security-threat-multiplier
3) https://reliefweb.int/report/world/people-countries-impacted-climate-change-also-vulnerable-terrorist-recruitment-violence
4) https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2018/01/indian-military-recognizes-environment-critical-security-issue-response-fragmented/
5) https://reliefweb.int/report/world/how-climate-change-driving-conflict-africa
6) https://en.unesco.org/courier/2018-2/climate-change-raises-conflict-concerns
7) https://www.theigc.org/blog/does-climate-change-cause-conflict/

8) https://www.researchgate.net/publication/247526246_Environmentally_induced_migration_from_Bangladesh_to_India

9) https://www.un.org/press/en/2021/sc14728.doc.htm

10) https://jps.library.utoronto.ca/index.php/nmcjournal/article/view/33608/26519

READINGS
1) Securitization of Climate Change: Issues for Global and National Security, (Shelly Kedia, Swati Ganeshan, Pooja Sehbag, 2020), The Energy and Resource Institute & Konrad Adenauer Stiftung
https://www.usaid.gov/sites/default/files/documents/1866/ClimateChangeConflictAnnex_2015%2002%2025%2C%20Final%20with%20date%20for%20Web.pdf
2) Climate Change and Conflict. (USAID. 2015)
https://www.teriin.org/research-paper/securitization-climate-change-issues-global-and-national-security