Climate change is about more than simply more intense heat waves

A rise in annual average temperatures is not certain, despite the fact that global warming is a consistent tendency. Due to variations in the weather on a daily basis and throughout the seasons, there will always be days and nights that are bitterly cold, even when the overall temperature rises.
When we talk about climate change, we don’t only mean changes in the average global surface temperature; we also imply changes in the atmosphere’s circulation, the magnitude and pattern of natural climate oscillations, and the weather at the regional level. During a La Nina event, the weather patterns vary, making certain areas wetter and wetter summers typically colder. The occasional longer and colder winters can be attributed to the stronger winds originating from the polar regions.
Similar to this, numerous recent cold winters in Europe, eastern North America, and northern Asia have been caused by the persistence of one phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, an atmospheric circulation pattern. It is appropriate to point out that climate change is about more than simply more intense heat waves; it also brings about extreme weather conditions, including increased rains and untimely snowfalls.

Climate Change and Kashmir
Kashmir is experiencing winter-like situations with heavy rainfall and snow in some places in the middle of the Spring season, while the rest of India continues to grapple with a heatwave. The only constant in this ever-changing climate is that nothing is constant any longer. In spite of enjoying the early summer sun in the valley, people’s teeth are chattering from unusually lower temperatures.
In the month of May, as a trend, people in Kashmir were supposed to say goodbye to Pheran and Kangri, bask in the sun and admire the blossoming flowers of the Mughal gardens. To their dismay, the tables have turned. This alteration in the timing of winter is an immediate consequence of global warming.
Every time the temperature lowers, the climate change skeptics pop up to ask the same tired old line: “It’s freezing out! It’s starting to snow a lot! All this talk of climate change and global warming, where is it?”
Those who are also really interested in answers now have a resource to turn to.
The continued burning of fossil fuels has resulted in the emergence of a long-term temperature trend, and it is clearly rising. The weather, however, has been and always will be unpredictable. Temperatures range from warm to moderate to chilly to frigid. The seasons alternate between dry and rainy. This has been the case and will continue to be so. But the eventual outcome of the climate crisis is a lot more nuanced than just global warming equals the end of winter. Worldwide, there has been an increase in the frequency of extreme rainfall. And they don’t happen only in the warmer months.
While it may go against common sense, the Environmental Defense Fund predicts that more precipitation during winter storms will be an effect of global warming. That’s because the world is getting hotter and more water is being evaporated into the air. The increased humidity will bring more precipitation, either in the form of snow or rain.
One of the major consequences of global warming is the lingering of arctic air over warmer regions for a longer duration resulting in winter-like situations in the regions. Arctic deep-freezes keep flowing farther and farther south, which may be a result of climate change despite the fact that it seems to have minimal to do with global warming at first glance.
But as the Arctic continues to warm and average world temperatures rise, the jet stream is slowing down and becoming more wavy, according to a growing body of studies. As a result, the once-steady jet stream is weakening, allowing frigid Arctic air to move considerably further south than usual throughout the winter and to remain over warmer regions for longer than usual.
Kashmir receives a significant amount of its precipitation (rainfall/snowfall) from western disturbances (WD), which transport moisture mostly from the tropical Atlantic Ocean, the Mediterranean Sea, the Caspian Sea, and the Black Sea. Despite occurring year-round, a western disturbance is at its peak activity between the months of December and February. Western disturbances can be greatly redirected or intensified by atmospheric Rossby waves on a planetary scale, with the magnitude and length of these waves varying from a few to tens of days.
Kashmir, where there is little to no industrialization and contributes almost nothing to climate change at the global level is bearing the brunt of the consequences of the source of one of humanity’s greatest crises. The patterns have shifted as the weather has become more unpredictable over the past few decades. Chillai Kallan sees a decrease in snowfall, as does the rest of winter, although the conclusion of the season sees increased events of snowfall and extreme weather patterns. Wet snow predominates, while dry powder is in a shorter supply. The tree line is not the only thing that has risen; the snowline has too. These are the bare minimum of signs of climate change. When we speak of climate change, it doesn’t simply mean higher temperatures and more kinds of precipitation; it also means more chaotic weather patterns.

Consequences and ways forward
The Indian Government’s Department of Science and Technology (DST) conducted a vulnerability assessment study across 12 states in the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR), finding that Jammu and Kashmir is among the country’s three most vulnerable states to the effects of climate change, along with Assam and Mizoram.
Thousands of households in Kashmir depend on income from apple cultivation, which generates 50 billion rupees ($660,000) annually for the local economy. The series of freak snowstorms are not only destroying this precious crop but threatening the regional economy as well. 40 percent of the region’s ready-to-pick fruit was lost after an unexpected snowstorm in October 2021. Some estimates put the losses incurred by Kashmiri apple producers at above Rs 5 billion after an unseasonably strong snowfall on November 2022. Apple producers and other farmers are in a tight spot after the unseasonable snowstorm of May 2023 severely destroyed the harvest. Undoubtedly, to a greater extent than ever before, climate change has made it difficult for meteorological services to reliably predict extremely high-impact occurrences.
Since climate change has increased atmospheric instability, the situation necessitates the emergence of more sophisticated techniques for providing advanced weather updates from the meteorological department in order to facilitate the people. In an effort to better anticipate the weather, the IMD must increase the number of radars, automated weather stations (AWS), rain gauges, and satellites in its observational network. As part of its state action plan on climate change, the government should also insure farmers against risks associated with the changing environment. In order to create a climate strategy that can withstand the inevitable ups and downs, experts in academia, science, and research should be consulted.

References:

• • Kashmir Farmers, Orchardists Worried Over Crop as Inclement Weather Disrupts life | NewsClick

  • Heavy Snow Hurts Kashmir’s Apple Farmers (thewire.in)

  • Yating Zhang, Bilal M. Ayyub, Chapter 2 – Temperature extremes in a changing climate, Editor(s): Ali Fares, Climate Change and Extreme Events, Elsevier, 2021, Pages 9-23, ISBN 9780128227008, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-822700-8.00001-9.

  • Nazir Zaz, Sumira, Romshoo, Shakil, Thokuluwa, Ramkumar, Viswanadhapalli, Yesu., 2018, Climatic and extreme weather variations over Mountainous Jammu and Kashmir, India: Physical explanations based on observations and modelling. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 1-47. DOI 10.5194/acp-2018-201