Natural disasters are on the rise worldwide. There are more and more intense natural disasters – determined to cause at least 100 deaths or to affect the basic survival needs of at least 1,000 people – resulting from floods and storms as well as droughts and heat waves. The Asia and the Pacific region has experienced some of the most damaging natural disasters in recent decades, with alarming consequences for human welfare. At the same time, the climate in the region has been changing. Temperatures have been higher, on average, and also more variable and more extreme. Rainfall has also been more variable and more extreme.
In 2021, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) launched 26 new operations, 15 of which were climate-related disaster responses. The IFRC is still responding to a further 21 disasters across Asia and the Pacific, from previous years.
At the annual climate summit in the Polish city of Katowice, a risk index was released that shows countries in South Asia are among the most vulnerable, globally, to the impacts of climate change. India has been ranked the 14th most vulnerable nation on the list topped by Puerto Rico, ravaged by Hurricane Maria in 2017. Sri Lanka was in second place. Nepal was ranked the 4th most vulnerable country while Bangladesh was ranked 9th.
Climate change and extreme weather events
South Asia has been the worst hit this year, with millions of people affected by multiple disasters and little time to recover from one to the next.
Other countries across Asia have also been affected. Nearly one million people were swamped by flooding in Thailand, more than half a million people were affected by floods and typhoons in the Philippines, and over 125,000 people were hit by floods in Myanmar. Pacific Island countries also faced significant flooding due to storms and rising sea tides.
In 2017, around 2,726 deaths in India were directly related to extreme climate-related events, such as storms, heat waves, floods, and droughts. The Global Climate Risk Index 2019 reported that India suffered an economic loss of about USD 13.8 billion in the year.
The index report prepared by Berlin-based environmental organization Germanwatch, which analyses the extent to which countries and regions have been affected by impacts of extreme weather, states that between 1998 and 2017, more than 526,000 people died worldwide. There were losses of USD 3.47 trillion as a result of more than 11,500 extreme weather events.
About 11,500 people died because of extreme weather events and economic damages totaled around USD 375 billion worldwide.
Disastrous storms and climate connection
Recent storms with intensity levels never seen before have had disastrous impacts. Poor countries are hardest hit. But extreme weather events also threaten the further development of upper-middle-income countries and can even overburden high-income countries.
Massive rainfall led to floods across South Asia in Nepal, Bangladesh, and India, which affected more than 40 million people. As many as 200 people lost their lives in these countries and millions were displaced throughout the region. Nepal experienced flash floods and landslides in August 2017 across the southern border with India, leading to USD 600 million in damages. The floods spread across the foothills of the Himalayas and brought landslides, destroying tens of thousands of houses, vast areas of farmland, and roads.
Sri Lanka experienced exceptionally heavy rain caused dramatic flooding that killed 200 people and left hundreds of thousands of people homeless.
South Asia had also been hit by two cyclones in as many weeks, with Cyclone Amphan ravaging parts of eastern India and Bangladesh. Coming at a time when countries in South Asia are grappling with the Covid-19 crisis, this has only multiplied the plight of millions.
Climate change amplifies the cyclonic storms that typically form in the northern Indian Ocean. Warmer oceans mean there is higher rainfall during storms. Rising sea levels due to global warming make for higher storm surges, which reach larger inland areas. A warmer ocean does not automatically mean there will be more cyclones, but if the cyclones are born, they will become stronger on account of a warmer sea.
About one-third of the global population lives around the Indian Ocean, many in low-lying coastal areas, small islands, developing states and least developed countries that are particularly vulnerable to climate impacts. The Arabian Sea was spared severe cyclones but that no longer seems to be the case. It had five cyclones in 2019. IPCC reports indicate an increase in Arabian Sea cyclones during the pre and post-monsoon seasons as a response to the rapid ocean warming trends.
South Asia’s poorer countries are impacted the most
Eight of the 10 countries, as per the Germanwatch index, most affected between 1998 and 2017 are developing economies.
It has been said that there is increasing evidence of the link between El Niño events and global warming. The occurrence of El Niño, a warm current in the Pacific Ocean, affects the monsoon in South Asia, which is vital for the summer cropping season. The occurrence of such events could double in the future due to climate change.
The Australian meteorological department has predicted that there is evidence that El Niño is developing. This could have an adverse impact on Indian farming, which is already in the midst of a crisis.
Threat to coastal cities
South Asia houses millions and with massive unplanned growth, the poor constantly shift to low-lying areas, making them particularly vulnerable to severe storms and flooding. According to NASA, global sea levels have risen by about 23 cm compared with pre-industrial times and are rising by 3.3 mm every year. This has grievous implications for South Asian cities on the coast or close to it.
Natural storm breakers such as mangroves have been cut down in recent years. The vanishing mangroves around Mumbai are a case in point. Many experts are of the opinion that the damage from Cyclone Amphan would have been much greater if the mangroves of the Sundarbans had not blunted the storm’s fury somewhat.
The damage cyclones cause is made worse by inadequate drainage systems and loss of ponds that used to hold water, encroachment over existing drainage systems, and reduction in coastal mangroves. Implementation of coastal zone regulations in consultation with local communities is an important approach to safeguarding ecosystem services.
Addressing climate impacts in South and Southeast Asia
The ongoing climate summit has to increase efforts to properly address loss and damage. At present, it is a cross-cutting issue referenced throughout various negotiation streams, with a significant risk of being omitted from the final negotiation text. Countries like Haiti, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan are repeatedly hit by extreme weather events and have no time to fully recover. It is important to support these countries in climate change adaptation, but that is not sufficient. They need predictable and reliable financial support for dealing with climate-induced loss and damage as well.
The 24th Conference of Parties aims to prepare the rule book needed to implement the Paris Agreement. It is uncertain how loss and damage due to the impacts of climate change will be taken up under the Paris Agreement.
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