The available data on the DDC election results has so much to offer that trying to make sense of it remains as intriguing as ever.
Soon after the announcement of District Development Council (DDC) election results, the major political groupings and voices in Jammu and Kashmir began to claim the results as being a popular endorsement of their respective rallying cries (a yes/no referendum of sorts on the abrogation of Article 370). In doing so, they’re actually presenting the tilted and twisted (election result) figures to promote their political interests, but despite all the exciting statements, the actual figures tell a different story.
As the saying goes, “figures will not lie, liars will figure”. It is our duty to prevent the liars from “figuring” in the interest of distinguishing lies from truth; in other words, to prevent them from misrepresenting the figures (offered by the state election authority) and perverting the truth. Notwithstanding how different parties and groups choose to look at the election results, an objective interpretation and analysis of the available data lay bare a fictitious binary, created by the bigger political groups, of framing the results.
For instance, the regional parties — National Conference (NC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) — which have dominated the politics of J&K for decades are clearly playing second fiddle to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), a fairly late entrant into the J&K politics in terms of both vote share and the number of seats won. Having said that BJP has emerged as the single largest party by winning 75 seats in DDC elections; whereas, NC stands at number two with 67 seats, and PDP at number four with just 27 seats.
Interestingly, the Independent Candidates have fared far better than the regional parties and emerged as key players with 50 seats. Thus every single party is using its reach and connections to rope in the Independents to wrest the control and chairs of the District Development Councils. Some parties have gone on record to say that they have invested in the Independent Candidates and supported them during DDC elections – clearly indicating that now is the time for the latter to reciprocate.
For now, let’s leave the discussion to the political parties and wait as to how they are able to woo the Independents; however, the available data on the DDC election results has so much to offer that trying to make sense of it remains as intriguing as ever.
BJP has emerged the number one both in terms of seats won as well as in vote share. But it is also true that the party fared very well in the Jammu region, already its stronghold, which saw a voter turnout of around 70 per cent. Compared to this, Kashmir valley witnessed very low voter turnout. Therefore, the winning parties in Kashmir could not score heavily in terms of vote share.
But BJP did make an entry into Kashmir, winning three seats from the valley, which is an achievement for it. Even if one were to credit this success to its management skills, it still merits serious thought because the party is still in its nascent stage in Kashmir, and the decibels of anti-BJP shrill have only grown here after August 2019. Besides other things, it’s also evident that BJP’s, or for that matter, even its adversaries’ arguments and posturing cannot be taken entirely at face value.
Yes/no referendum on abrogation of Article 370
If the participation of people in the DDC polls was “for” or “against” the Centre’s August 2019 decision of abrogating the J&K’s special status, then both the BJP and its rivals in the seven-party amalgam — People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD) — have a reason to step back for a while to do some careful analysis before making any boastful claims.
If PAGD, or its major constituents – the NC or PDP – claim the results as being a vote against the abrogation of Article 370, then they will also have to concede that BJP’s success in the Jammu region means that the “anti-abrogation” sentiment there (in Jammu region) is not as strong as it is in Kashmir. So by this logic, it also means that like so many other issues, the two regions of the Union Territory are completely polarized over the abrogation of Article 370, thereby neither PAGD nor BJP can claim that DDC election was “for” or “against” the decision of August 05, 2019.
For the sake of argument, let’s take the DDC results as if they were for the J&K Legislative Assembly. In that case the results of 278 seats that are out as of now (results of two seats, one each in Kupwara and Bandipora remaining withheld) BJP with its 75 seats, and 12 seats of the J&K Apni Party (JKAP) will still need to woo Panthers Party with two seats and BSP with one seat and a substantive chunk of Independents to secure even a simple majority.
The same is the case with the PAGD. With NC’s 67 seats, PDP’s 27, CPIM’s five, Peoples Conferences’ 8, People’s Movement’s three seats, PAGD count reaches only 110. So it too is clearly short of the majority figure, and will also need to rope in a good number of Independents to its fold.
In both cases, claiming the results as being “for” or “against” the abrogation of Article 370 decision is wrong. If it were an endorsement in favour of the abrogation, then BJP and its allies should have won a sweeping majority in DDC elections. Similarly, if the election results are to be seen as being against the August 05, 2019 decision, and an endorsement of PAGD’s anti-abrogation political rhetoric and stance, in that case, PAGD should have won a majority and that has not happened, either.
Therefore, any attempts to project the DDC election as being “for” or “against” the abrogation of Article 370 is flawed, and far from reality. It’s a clear case of fictitious binary, ‘either-or’ politics, and instead an appreciation of, and need for ‘both-and’ approach.
Making sense of DDC election results
A major take-away from the DDC election results is that the NC has won seats in 18 districts where no other party including BJP, Congress and PDP could. Udhampur and Kathua are the only two districts where NC could not win a single seat.
The Congress party, which is witnessing a decline in popularity across the county, continues to lose political ground even in Jammu and Kashmir. Having contested 118 seats, the party has just won 26, which gives it a strike rate of over 22 percent. Its vote share too is not very encouraging.
NC contested 132 seats, won 67 at a strike rate of 50.75 percent; BJP contested 183, won 75 at a strike rate of 40.98 percent; PDP won 27 out of 63 with a strike rate of 42.85 percent.
Unlike these major parties, who have and still continue to monopolize the politics of J&K, the smaller parties — whose sphere of influence remains confined to smaller areas — have a better strike rate. For instance, Sajad Gani Lone’s Peoples Conference contested on just 11 seats in its north Kashmir bastion and won eight with a strike rate of nearly 73 percent. Similarly, the CPI-M leader Mohammad Yusuf Tarigami was assigned just seven segments during seat-sharing parleys within the PAGD, and out of these, he won five, with an impressive strike rate of 71.42 percent.
The newly floated Jammu and Kashmir Apni Party (JKAP) — formed in March this year, and comprising of some very senior politicians, who after enjoying power and privilege for decades in other groups, deserted them to form this party — had fielded candidates on 134 segments across the Union Territory. With just 38,000 votes and mere 12 seats, at a strike rate of just 8.95 percent, JKAP has put up a poor show in DDC elections.
Surprisingly, Independent candidates, all over the Union Territory, performed very well and won 50 seats out of 278 (17.98 percent of the total 280 seats).
Now that the results are out, barring two seats one each in Kupwara and Bandipora, the focus is shifting towards electing DDC chairmen. PAGD seems confident in Kupwara, Budgam, Pulwama, Anantnag, Ganderbal and Kulgam where it can win the DDC chairman elections hands down. If Congress also supports the PAGD, the latter will comfortably have its DDC chairmen in Baramulla, Bandipora, Shopian, Rajouri, Ramban, and Kishtwar too leaving only five districts for BJP – Doda, Udhampur, Kathua, Jammu and Samba.
In Reasi, BJP has won 7 seats so to lead the DDC, it would have to either woo the solo Independent candidate or JKAP, which has won two seats there. It would be interesting to watch the DDC scenario of Poonch district where the majority lies with Independent candidates who have won eight seats followed by INC with four and NC with two.
In Srinagar, seven seats have been won by the Independents, three by JKAP and one by the BJP. PAGD has just three seats in the Srinagar district. Here also, the key to DDC chairmanships lie with the Independents.
How things would unfold and how the Independents would behave remains to be seen. But in any case, neither the PAGD nor the BJP are in a position to substantiate their claims with regard to DDC election results, unless they want to figure as liars by manipulating the figures thrown up by the electorate, which has once again reposed faith in the festival of democracy by coming out in large numbers to vote.
At the height of militancy when elections were held in 1996 after a long hiatus of some nine years, very few people came out to vote. But the mainstream politicians and media celebrated even this minuscule public participation in elections as the “victory of democracy”. Since then every time elections have taken place in J&K, irrespective of the scope of the public participation, it has been celebrated as the “victory of democracy”.
The successful conduct of the maiden DDC elections in J&K, the first democratic exercise in the erstwhile state since the abrogation of its special status, has raised hopes that the political parties will move beyond the rhetorical celebration of “victory of democracy” so a real victory for democracy will be when democratic institutions in J&K are able to earn public faith and trust.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of JKPI
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